I now show how the model predicts the temperature for Solar Cycle 21 and 24. In both cases I show an old plot based on the HadCRUT3 NH temperatures followed by a new plot based on the HadCRUT4 NH temperatures. I refer to an earlier blog post for explanation of the plots. Now I just comment on any differences between HadCRUT 3 and 4.
Prediction for Solar Cycle 21Solar cycle 21 lasted from July 1976 till October 1986. See more explanation in chapter 2.2.2 in an earlier blog post.
Both plots above show that the temperatures measured before the mid-1970s fit very well with the Solar Cycle Model, but that temperatures in the first solar cycle after the mid-1970s do not.
Prediction for Solar Cycle 24Solar cycle 24 started in December 2008, and it will probably last for the rest of the current decade. See more explanation in chapter 2.2.4 in an earlier blog post .
Both plots above show that the mean temperature observed so far in cycle 24 is much higher than predicted by the model.