fredag 21. desember 2012

The Solar Cycle Model and the HadCRUT4 NH temperatures

In earlier blog posts I often used the HadCRUT3 temperature series when testing the Solar Cycle Model. I am asked whether the results would have been different if I had applied the new HadCRUT4 temperatures. The answer is no.  This is not surprising, because I have earlier seen that the NASA GISS NH temperatures also fit with the model approximately in the same way as the HadCRUT3 NH temperatures do.

I now show how the model predicts the temperature for Solar Cycle 21 and 24. In both cases I show an old plot based on the HadCRUT3 NH temperatures followed by a new plot based on the HadCRUT4 NH temperatures. I refer to an earlier blog post for explanation of the plots. Now I just comment on any differences between HadCRUT 3 and 4.

onsdag 12. desember 2012

Solar Cycle Model, comparison of results

Jan-Erik Solheim, Kjell Stordahl and Ole Humlum (hereafter SSH) have recently published two articles about the relationship between the mean temperature in a solar cycle and the length of the previous solar cycle [1, 2]. I have discussed these articles in earlier blog posts, see [3]. I assume that the reader is familiar with this.

In this blog post I directly compare some of SSH's results with my results. I put special emphasis on the plots showing the predictions for solar cycle 23 and for the current cycle 24. I also comment on the robustness check that SSH use to test the model; a check that in my opinion fails.