fredag 21. desember 2012

The Solar Cycle Model and the HadCRUT4 NH temperatures

In earlier blog posts I often used the HadCRUT3 temperature series when testing the Solar Cycle Model. I am asked whether the results would have been different if I had applied the new HadCRUT4 temperatures. The answer is no.  This is not surprising, because I have earlier seen that the NASA GISS NH temperatures also fit with the model approximately in the same way as the HadCRUT3 NH temperatures do.

I now show how the model predicts the temperature for Solar Cycle 21 and 24. In both cases I show an old plot based on the HadCRUT3 NH temperatures followed by a new plot based on the HadCRUT4 NH temperatures. I refer to an earlier blog post for explanation of the plots. Now I just comment on any differences between HadCRUT 3 and 4.

Prediction for Solar Cycle 21

Solar cycle 21 lasted from July 1976 till October 1986. See more explanation in chapter 2.2.2 in an earlier blog post.

Both plots above show that the temperatures measured before the mid-1970s fit very well with the Solar Cycle Model, but that temperatures in the first solar cycle after the mid-1970s do not.

Prediction for Solar Cycle 24

Solar cycle 24 started in December 2008, and it will probably last for the rest of the current decade. See more explanation in chapter 2.2.4  in an earlier blog post .

The observed mean temperatures in cycle 23 and in cycle 24 are higher in the HadCRUT4 NH plot than in the HadCRUT3 NH plot. The old HadCRUT3 plot used temperatures up to and including March 2012, and the new HadCRUT4 plot uses temperatures up to and including October 2012. This may explain some of the difference for cycle 24.

Both plots above show that the mean temperature observed so far in cycle 24 is much higher than predicted by the model.

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